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Chris Recker discusses the negative signals of aggressive Fed policy and high valuations in equity markets. Recorded 10/4/2024.
Chris Recker discusses the state of the economy, asset allocation shifts, and potential opportunities among "fallen angels". Recorded 7/26/2024.
Chris Recker discusses potential market and economic outcomes in 2024, and how markets have reacted to rate cuts in the past. Recorded 1/19/2024.
Chris Recker discusses how falling bonds yields have impacted stocks recently. Yet, earnings and free cash flow continue to be challenged. Chris also outlines bond market valuation relative to equities. Recorded 11/3/2023.
With the Russia-Ukraine conflict breaching into war, the world finds itself confronting an already fragile economic and financial landscape that is now exacerbated by the uncertainty of combat and rising geopolitical tension.
Fiscal and monetary policy has effectively sacrificed the economy for the stock market's benefit. In the past, similar asset bubbles have resulted in “dead money."
A look at possible long-term effects of today's unprecedented monetary expansion and direct fiscal transfers to individuals and local governments.
The demise of many short sellers over the last decade might be a canary in the coal mine as central bank policy threatens market function.
The economy is witnessing an unholy trinity of false ideas, weakened institutions, and malign interests converging to stymie its long-term health and resilience.
Today, the U.S. has an asset bubble comparable to Japan’s in 1989-1990, and so how Japan navigated an exit from their bubble can yield stylized insights on what might be in store for the U.S.
Long term investment – the type that yields a future return - may be the best tonic for real, sustainable growth that creates jobs and lays the foundation for economic strength.
The Fed's Monetary Review looks like a continuation of the Greenspan school. If the Fed is successful in generating significant inflation, impacts on markets could follow.
We are now witnessing the recession that is following the depression. Job markets are troubled. The official unemployment rate in no way communicates reality of U.S. labor markets. Over 55 million initial jobless claims or nearly 33% of February labor force levels have been filed since March 12th.
Through massive levels of unemployment and extreme factors pressuring small businesses, the pandemic shutdowns have introduced a new dynamic that could hinder the recovery.
Instead of investing in the future of the U.S. with initiatives that seek a pay-off, recent bailouts and market manipulations will only hamper long-term growth. Is the U.S. heading toward Japanification?
The U.S. has failed to grow. Doubling down on the policies of the past twenty years is a recipe for further failure. It's time to go American School, again.
The West will face some difficult truths as it confronts this health, economic, energy and financial crisis. We will emerge as a stronger, more self-sufficient and humane civilization.
Cracks that started before the world knew the term coronavirus (Covid-19) have now come under more pressure, as we digest the potential of a pandemic emanating from Wuhan, China.
By many measures the U.S. stock market is in a bubble. Valuations need to be justified by growth. Markets have diverged from fundamentals based on current and future expected performance.
In the midst of a Capital War, the China Lobby is deftly pushing for American retirees and pensions to help fund an asset bubble in China, and their vehicle of choice is the ubiquitous index fund.
China’s foreign currency reserves are too low to support its asset bubble and money supply. The CCP’s diminished ability to drive global growth could reduce the costs of U.S. decoupling.
The IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report estimates a staggering amount of global corporate debt-at-risk. But, is the problem contained?
The Federal Reserve's policy course change has ushered in a new wave of monetary easing. Are they signaling a severe level of concern?
In 2008 short-term funding markets experienced issues that led to Fed intervention. They were a sign of increasing counterparty risk. Today, are the repo markets calling out again?
The U.S. dollar is at the heart of the international order, but stability is in jeopardy as the conflict between the U.S. and China intensifies.
Sequence risk can impact several types of investors, including 401(k) savers, current retirees, and endowments. We illustrate the effects with basic examples.
China has been executing an unrestricted, all domain war against the United States for decades. We review select methods and effects.
Valuations in the U.S. are at extremes only seen a handful of times in history, including 1929. This time there is a trade war and excess capacity outside of the United States.
