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Chris Recker discusses the negative signals of aggressive Fed policy and high valuations in equity markets. Recorded 10/4/2024.
Chris Recker discusses the state of the economy, asset allocation shifts, and potential opportunities among "fallen angels". Recorded 7/26/2024.
Chris Recker discusses potential market and economic outcomes in 2024, and how markets have reacted to rate cuts in the past. Recorded 1/19/2024.
The demise of many short sellers over the last decade might be a canary in the coal mine as central bank policy threatens market function.
Today, the U.S. has an asset bubble comparable to Japan’s in 1989-1990, and so how Japan navigated an exit from their bubble can yield stylized insights on what might be in store for the U.S.
The Fed's Monetary Review looks like a continuation of the Greenspan school. If the Fed is successful in generating significant inflation, impacts on markets could follow.
We are now witnessing the recession that is following the depression. Job markets are troubled. The official unemployment rate in no way communicates reality of U.S. labor markets. Over 55 million initial jobless claims or nearly 33% of February labor force levels have been filed since March 12th.
Through massive levels of unemployment and extreme factors pressuring small businesses, the pandemic shutdowns have introduced a new dynamic that could hinder the recovery.
Instead of investing in the future of the U.S. with initiatives that seek a pay-off, recent bailouts and market manipulations will only hamper long-term growth. Is the U.S. heading toward Japanification?
By many measures the U.S. stock market is in a bubble. Valuations need to be justified by growth. Markets have diverged from fundamentals based on current and future expected performance.
The Federal Reserve's policy course change has ushered in a new wave of monetary easing. Are they signaling a severe level of concern?
In 2008 short-term funding markets experienced issues that led to Fed intervention. They were a sign of increasing counterparty risk. Today, are the repo markets calling out again?
