Insights

Featured commentary, analysis, and ideas from our team.
Results for category Investing
 

The Fed's New Look: Same As The Old

The Fed's Monetary Review looks like a continuation of the Greenspan school. If the Fed is successful in generating significant inflation, impacts on markets could follow.

 

Recession Caused by a Depression

We are now witnessing the recession that is following the depression. Job markets are troubled. The official unemployment rate in no way communicates reality of U.S. labor markets. Over 55 million initial jobless claims or nearly 33% of February labor force levels have been filed since March 12th.

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Excerpt of CIO Chris Recker on the TD Ameritrade Network as he discusses economic fundamentals and their detachment from the market rally. Recorded 8/6/20.

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CIO Chris Recker appeared on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss current market conditions and underlying risks. Recorded 6/26/20.

 

Quicksand Economics (QE): Sacrificing Sure Footing

Through massive levels of unemployment and extreme factors pressuring small businesses, the pandemic shutdowns have introduced a new dynamic that could hinder the recovery.

 

The High Cost of High Prices

Instead of investing in the future of the U.S. with initiatives that seek a pay-off, recent bailouts and market manipulations will only hamper long-term growth. Is the U.S. heading toward Japanification?

 

American School: A Blueprint For Growth

The U.S. has failed to grow. Doubling down on the policies of the past twenty years is a recipe for further failure. It's time to go American School, again.

 

With Covid-19, Who Pays the Price?

The West will face some difficult truths as it confronts this health, economic, energy and financial crisis. We will emerge as a stronger, more self-sufficient and humane civilization.

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CIO Chris Recker joins the TD Ameritrade Network remotely to discuss the impact of Covid-19 on the markets, economic conditions, and China relations. Recorded 3/19/20.

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CIO Chris Recker joined the TDAN panel to discuss the precarious posture of the stock market, deteriorating fundamentals, and coronavirus risks. Recorded 2/20/20.

 

Markets Before Contagion

Cracks that started before the world knew the term coronavirus (Covid-19) have now come under more pressure, as we digest the potential of a pandemic emanating from Wuhan, China.

 

Equity Markets Have Disconnected from the Real Economy

By many measures the U.S. stock market is in a bubble. Valuations need to be justified by growth. Markets have diverged from fundamentals based on current and future expected performance.

 

The Hidden Implications of Global Index Re-Weightings

In the midst of a Capital War, the China Lobby is deftly pushing for American retirees and pensions to help fund an asset bubble in China, and their vehicle of choice is the ubiquitous index fund.

 

China Growth: FX and Asset Bubble

China’s foreign currency reserves are too low to support its asset bubble and money supply. The CCP’s diminished ability to drive global growth could reduce the costs of U.S. decoupling.

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CIO Chris Recker joined the Market on Close panel at TD Ameritrade Network to discuss global themes related to a USD shortage and higher cost of capital. Recorded 11/21/19.

 

Global Corporate Debt Is A Tinderbox

The IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report estimates a staggering amount of global corporate debt-at-risk. But, is the problem contained?

 

Easing Cycle Fix: Saved by Zero?

The Federal Reserve's policy course change has ushered in a new wave of monetary easing. Are they signaling a severe level of concern?

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Video clip of CIO Chris Recker on the TD Ameritrade Network discussing what the Fed may be indicating with their current policy. Recorded 10/21/19.

 

Collateral Concerns 2008 vs. 2019

In 2008 short-term funding markets experienced issues that led to Fed intervention. They were a sign of increasing counterparty risk. Today, are the repo markets calling out again?

 

Dollar Shield / Dollar Storm

The U.S. dollar is at the heart of the international order, but stability is in jeopardy as the conflict between the U.S. and China intensifies.

 

How Sequence Risk Can Impact Your Retirement

Sequence risk can impact several types of investors, including 401(k) savers, current retirees, and endowments. We illustrate the effects with basic examples.

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TD Ameritrade invited CIO Chris Recker to discuss the wild swings in the repo market and his outlook on the economy. Recorded 9/17/19.

 

Unrestricted, All Domain Warfare

China has been executing an unrestricted, all domain war against the United States for decades. We review select methods and effects.

 

Are Market Conditions Similar to 1929?

Valuations in the U.S. are at extremes only seen a handful of times in history, including 1929. This time there is a trade war and excess capacity outside of the United States.